The Jobs Outlook after the Labour Budget - Live Webinar with Julius Probst
The Labour Budget is here — but what does it actually mean for jobs, wages and recruitment? In this special Talent Matters Live session, Wave CEO Dave Jenkins sits down with Julius Probst, Senior Economist at Appcast, to break down the good, the bad and the unexpected from the Budget announcement. Together they explore: • How the Budget impacts employers, recruiters and candidates • What rising minimum wages mean for hiring • Sector-by-sector outlook for 2025 • Skills shortages, migration, and the future of work • Why blue-collar demand is rising while white-collar slows • What businesses can expect over the next 6–12 months If you want a clear, practical view of how the Budget affects the UK labour market — without the noise — this video is for you. In this webinar: 00:00 Introduction 00:24 What We’re Covering Today 01:30 Introducing Julius Probst, PhD 02:19 The UK’s Economic Backdrop 03:40 Debt, Interest Payments and Fiscal Pressure 05:21 Tax Choices and the Budget Approach 06:42 Minimum Wage Increases and Hiring Impact 08:52 Wage Pressure, Inflation and Interest Rates 10:19 Salary Sacrifice Changes Explained 12:00 The Hidden Payroll Tax for Employers 14:09 What Counts as Salary Sacrifice? 15:14 A Complicated Tax Code 16:11 Fiscal Drag and Frozen Thresholds 17:25 How the UK Compares to Europe 20:28 The 62% Marginal Tax Trap 22:35 Why High Marginal Tax Reduces Labour Supply 23:36 What’s Next for Hiring and Job Vacancies 24:53 Sector Outlook: Hospitality, Retail and More 26:18 Impact on NEET and Younger Workers 27:27 White Collar vs Blue Collar Demand 29:48 Which Sectors Will Grow Next Year 31:01 Small Business Costs and Outlook 32:21 Consumer Confidence and Spending 33:13 Recruitment Margins and Fee Pressure 38:03 Should Businesses Move Abroad? 41:10 Growth: What’s Missing in the Budget 42:23 The Laffer Curve Question 43:38 Migration, Skills and Worker Shortages 44:51 The Good: Stability and Clarity 46:07 What Happens Next for Employers 47:06 Closing Thoughts and Thanks
